Challenges with using estimates when calculating ART need among adults in South Africa

Annette A M Gerritsen, Janine S Mitchell, Suzanne M Johnson, Wim Delva


Background. The Foundation for Professional Development (FPD) collects information annually on HIV/AIDS service provision and estimates service needs in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality (CTMM).

Methods. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) data from the Department of Health and Statistics South Africa (SSA) mid-year population estimates were used to approximate the ART need among adults in the CTMM.

Results. According to SSA data, ART need decreased dramatically from 2010 to 2011 and was lower than the number of adults receiving ART. Although the noted difference was probably due to changes in the calculations by SSA, no detailed or confirmed explanation could be offered.

Conclusions. We provide a constructive contribution to the discussion about the use of model-derived estimates of ART need.

Authors' affiliations

Annette A M Gerritsen, Epi Result, Louis Trichardt

Janine S Mitchell, Foundation for Professional Development, Tshwane

Suzanne M Johnson, Foundation for Professional Development, Tshwane

Wim Delva, Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation (DST/NRF) Centre for Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, South Africa, and International Centre for Reproductive Health, Ghent University

Full Text



HIV; ART; Epidemiological Modelling; Need estimates

Cite this article

South African Medical Journal 2012;102(10):798-799. DOI:10.7196/SAMJ.5946

Article History

Date submitted: 2012-04-25
Date published: 2012-08-24

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