Does the 2008 HSRC survey really point to a turning tide of HIV prevalence in children, teenagers and the youth?
• that HIV prevalence at national level has decreased amongst children aged 2-14, from 5.6% in 2002 to 2.5% in 2008
• that there was a substantial decrease in incidence in 2008 in comparison to 2002 and 2005, especially for the single age groups 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19
• that HIV prevalence has decreased amongst youth aged 15-24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, and
• that HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 has declined between 2002 and 2008 in the Western Cape, Gauteng, Northern Cape and the Free State, “with the largest decline of 7.9 (sic) percentage points in the Western Cape” .
How reliable are the results from the survey and how reasonable are these conclusions?
Robert Edwin Dorrington, UCT
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Date published: 2009-09-01
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